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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.